Thursday, August 06, 2015

Why Hillary will win in 2016

As it stands the Democrats have on hand the weakest line-up of candidates that the party has offered since the ill-fated 1972 campaign. Hilary Clinton should seal the nomination with ease as her opponents Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb barely look capable of mounting a challenge. Sanders may ruffle some feathers as he attempts to rally the so-called progressive wing of the party but at the moment seems... more set to take stage as the Democratic Party’s version of Ron Paul (a sideshow that in the past has featured the likes of Eugene McCarthy, Jesse Jackson and Dennis Kucinich).

In addition her bid to take the Oval Office is further enhanced by a deeply split Republican party that seems to have fractured along two definitive fault lines each incapable of defeating the Democrats on their own. The party establishment appear to be rallying behind the more predictable Jeb Bush as Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, George Pataki and Chris Christie have failed so far to capture the imagination of the public. In contrast the Tea Party base are gravitating towards Donald Trump with Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and Rand Paul remaining in the wings. The two groups are openly hostile towards and the rhetoric is fierce and downright dirty. Dems must be loving every moment of this. Lots of Ammo for the future.

Hillary’s best strategy is therefore to wait this out. Let the Republicans gnaw on each other, allow her Democratic opponents to sink further into the ether of blandness and then step in later to collect the leftovers. So far its working.

This sad truism is that Hillary is a poor choice to lead the nation as she brings to the table a very questionable ethics profile and a mixed record of success in an administrative role. Her political legacy is riddled with scandal (Filegate, Benghazi, Emailgate, Vince Foster, Clinton Foundation snafus, Huma Abedin, Chinagate etc) but like her husband she has an innate ability to wriggle free and avoid the detailed fallout that would certainly tarnish any other politician. She is a survivor per excellence and despite the fact that her bid for the presidency in 2008 was torpedoed by the media-driven Obama frenzy, looks clear this time around to blaze a path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a reality of the failure of others as opposed to the brilliance of her own platform. However when all said is done she could very well become President by default.
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